The warehouse war: what the dispute between Mercado Livre and Shopee means for the multichannel seller

The answer is straightforward: the competition between Mercado Livre and Shopee for logistics warehouses is redefining delivery infrastructure in Brazil, and this affects the multichannel seller in shipping costs, delivery speed, and pressure for operational efficiency. Those who sell on multiple marketplaces need to understand this shift to anticipate changes in fulfillment rules and protect real margin order by order.

According to a survey by consultancy JLL released by newspaper O Globo, the two companies accounted for 33% of all high-standard warehouse absorption in the first half of 2026. That's 2.1 million square meters effectively occupied — equivalent to more than 260 soccer fields. Mercado Livre led with 23% of that total, while Shopee took 10%. The vacancy rate fell to 5.5%, the lowest in history, and 30% of new warehouses scheduled for the second half of the year are already pre-leased by these two companies.

Why this matters for the seller

When a marketplace expands its logistics network, it gains capillarity to reduce delivery times and shipping costs — but it also imposes new standards of demand. The seller who operates on Mercado Livre and Shopee simultaneously feels the effects of this war in two ways:

• Fulfillment pressure: With more distribution centers, marketplaces can promise increasingly faster deliveries. This raises the bar for the seller who does their own shipping, who needs to match performance to avoid losing visibility or reputation.
• Subsidized shipping cost: The logic of free or subsidized shipping depends on a dense logistics network. The more warehouses, the more economical routes. The seller who joins programs like Full (Mercado Livre) or Coleta (Shopee) can benefit from lower rates, but also loses control over the delivery experience and needs to closely monitor fees and pass-throughs.

The impact on real margin

For the multichannel seller, the decision to use or not use the marketplace's logistics is one of the biggest drivers of real profit. Each order shipped via the channel's fulfillment has a cost that needs to be audited: storage fee, handling, shipping, and possible chargebacks. Jodda recommends that the seller perform a constant pass-through audit, comparing the effective logistics cost with what was deducted in the marketplace settlement. Differences of cents per order, when multiplied by thousands of SKUs, erode the margin without the seller noticing.

Strategy for a scarcity scenario

With the vacancy rate at a historic low, the dispute for space is not limited to the giants. Logistics operators and large sellers also face difficulty finding available warehouses, especially in strategic regions like Guarulhos (SP). This can raise storage costs for those who maintain their own inventory. The solution for the multichannel seller is to evaluate the real regime of the CNPJ and the ABC curve of products: high-turnover items can be allocated to the marketplace's fulfillment to gain capillarity, while medium or low-turnover items remain in own stock, as long as the cost structure justifies it.

What to expect in the second half

JLL points out that 2.7 million square meters in new warehouses will be delivered by December, but 30% are already committed to Mercado Livre and Shopee. This indicates that pressure on remaining spaces will remain high. For the seller, the message is clear: revisit your storage contracts, simulate scenarios of joining each channel's fulfillment, and keep an up-to-date P&L with an order-by-order view. In a market where logistics dictates competitiveness, profit intelligence is what separates sustainable growth from operating in the red.