Mercado Livre leads, but the gap is shrinking: what multi-channel sellers need to know
BofA sees two theses for Mercado Livre: an optimistic one, that the company widens its advantages; and a pessimistic one, that competitors like Shopee and TikTok Shop tighten the noose. For multi-channel sellers, the scenario demands control of real margin per order.
Mercado Livre is still the undisputed leader of Brazilian e-commerce, but the competitive landscape is far from unanimous among analysts. Bank of America (BofA) raised two opposing theses about the company's future: an optimistic one, betting on Meli's historical ability to reinvent itself; and a pessimistic one, seeing larger and more diversified competitors closing the gap. For multi-channel sellers, what matters is not which thesis wins, but how to prepare for either.
BofA's two theses
On the optimistic side, analysts recall that Mercado Livre has faced competitive threats before and responded by improving services, strengthening its value proposition, and preserving leadership. With new investments, the company could further expand its structural advantages.
Pessimists argue that this time is different. Competitors like Shopee, TikTok Shop, and cross-border trade (CBT) are larger, more diversified, and have greater engagement capacity. Meli would have responded too late to threats of low-average-price products and social selling, starting a significant investment cycle that pressures margins.
What this means for multi-channel sellers
Regardless of which thesis is confirmed, the current scenario demands stricter margin management from professional sellers. Here are the main points of attention:
Dispute over low prices and subsidized shipping
The growth of CBT and TikTok Shop pressures average prices, especially in low-ticket categories. Sellers who depend on a single marketplace are exposed to rule changes or shipping subsidies. Multi-channel diversification is the first layer of protection.
Investments in advertising and credit
BofA highlights that Meli is close to an inflection point in areas like consumer credit and advertising. For the seller, this means more competition for ad visibility (ADS) and the need to calculate ROAS accurately, considering all fees and commissions from each marketplace.
Agentic AI: opportunity or threat?
The operation of artificial intelligence for decision-making (Agentic AI) may bring more opportunities than threats in the medium term, according to the bank. Sellers who adopt profit intelligence tools — like Jodda — will be better prepared to use real data in decision-making, rather than relying solely on intuition.
How profit intelligence helps in this scenario
With tight margins and fierce competition, knowing the real margin per order is what differentiates sellers who survive from those who thrive. Jodda centralizes orders, costs, fees, shipping, ADS, and taxes from all marketplaces into a clear reading of real margin. This way, you see exactly where you are making or losing money — and can adjust prices, product mix, and ad investment based on data, not guesswork.
The future of Brazilian e-commerce is uncertain, but one thing is certain: those who operate with profit intelligence make better decisions. Decisions, not just data.